duncan
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 8920
Loc: Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
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with the perfect weather guaranteed for the weekend (  ) I seem to have a llose list around:-
GC1
makkers
ianj68
overdraught + another
kevB
me + another
pentane (already there waiting!)
departing Sat for Braye (lunch) then St PP from various ports between Poole and Chichester..............
returning Monday, Tuesday and 'at some point, maybe'........for a couple of us
with over 50% first timers it promises to be some arrival party!
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my boat for sale
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Cleanandshiny
regular
Reged: 16/03/2005
Posts: 618
Loc: Hants, office in Wokingham
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Sounds great, but have you seen the forecast.............. ?
But us down for a maybe, depending on how the weather hopefully, changes !
Adrian
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duncan
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 8920
Loc: Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
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Quote:
have you seen the forecast.............. ?
no - why?
Saturday is giving N3 going W2 so the forecast is great - of course what actually turns up is another thing!
Nothing too bad in the wings for those returning Mon/Tues but increasing Wed /Thu then easing again into the following week.
Sat adn Sunday look better over there than here for a bit of Sun but then it does look depressingly showery all next week so I will sit and watch GC1's telly and drink his booze...........
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my boat for sale
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rickp
regular
Reged: 10/11/2002
Posts: 5361
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Each forecast iteration seems to flipflop from looking nice, to looking nasty and back. This mornings forecast for the channel on Monday do not look great. WindGuru for instance...
Rick
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duncan
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 8920
Loc: Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
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thanks for that Rick
definitely worse over there - their model is giving the wind in Swanage for example as this windguru - swanage which is under half that predicted on the other side of the channel. I am assuming it doesn't take into account the local shelter from the direction!
As ever everyones going to have their own mind up about the weather - personally I am always able to turn back even if I have spent weeks looking forward to the trip and loading up etc - if I get out South past Anvil Point and I don't like it I will turn round!
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my boat for sale
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rickp
regular
Reged: 10/11/2002
Posts: 5361
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Yes, I don't think they take into account local shelter - its just a point on the GFS grid (or the merging of the nearest points). The GFS grid seems to have a row of points just north of the coast, and another row mid-channel - so you can interpolate a bit (wind is generally stronger then the model gives if its a southerly for instance).
With Windguru you can give it hints if you wish (see Wind Modifications), but I tend to leave it at the base model predictions . Also, if you're a subscriber, then the mm5 model can be a little more fine grained.
We do much the same as you - see what its like and then change plans accordingly.
Rick
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Medskipper
regular
Reged: 20/12/2001
Posts: 1619
Loc: Surrey
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Duncan, I have just got back from the channel isles. I don't want to put you all off, but the seas can be very big across the channel and can look fine when starting out. Its not always as easy as you think to turn back. We had an awful crossing, but it only picked up when we were just over half way across! I had turn stand off and turn around when several large tankers came along and it was even worse when we turned around. The closer we got to Alderney the worse it got, we were in 4-5 metre swells and when in the troughs there was waves higher than my flybridge, my cruiser is a Birchwood 37.
Take my advice, if the forecast is anything over 2-3 with a slight sea, don't go! you have inexperienced boaters with you!
Barry
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snail
regular
Reged: 17/05/2005
Posts: 26
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I would second the advice from barry. We got back from Cherbourg tonight at around 8:30 in a Targa 27 I made a bad call & should have turned back but didn't. One of the worst crossings I've made. (Broken shower head, t.v aeriel ripped off radar arch, 3 mtrs rubbing strake forced off, lots of water in bilge & cabin (Sink tap turned on by flying cabin contents) & thats only after a quick look tonight.
Don't mean to stick my nose in but would like to advise any inexperienced boaters to think atleast twice before going if its any more than a slight sea.
Kevin.
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BrendanS
regular
Reged: 11/06/2002
Posts: 36805
Loc: Me: Wilts. Boat: Lymington
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As they were setting of Sat, I suspect they'd have first rate knowledge of conditions, and will report back once they return from where ever they've been, which might not be CI's
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See http://www.frappr.com/ybw to add yourself to the forum map
and as everyone else is doing it
www.plaintalkconsulting.co.uk
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theforeman
regular
Reged: 06/09/2005
Posts: 895
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they appeared to be bbqing on studland beach at 1400hrs after spending the night in poole. ( gleaned from mobo forum )
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