No, what I am saying is that in any one year the probability could be absolutely zero. If there were 1 it would be 1 in x, still close to zero. Unlike road accidents where there are thousands to analyse the number of yachts foundering is so small and in circumstances that will not affect the vast majority of yachtsmen, that statistical analysis is not appropriate. This is why you have to consider and learn from each individual event - then you will get the themes that I have identified.