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DavenHelen
regular


Reged: 06/09/2005
Posts: 555
Loc: UK, Lancashire
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Fireball]
      #1859868 - 15/05/2008 14:27

Quote:

... which statistically speaking you are more likely to win the lottery this weekend using 1 set of numbers ...




So the chance of needing a Liferaft is lower than 1:14,000,000?

--------------------
Dave

"There are 10 types of people in the world - those who understand binary, and those who don't".


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nct1
regular


Reged: 21/02/2004
Posts: 408
Loc: UK
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Fireball]
      #1859873 - 15/05/2008 14:33

Statistics has nothing to do with the need for a LR. If the chances of foundering were significant we would not go out to sea. A LR is a fallback position of last resort.

Again I think the comparison stands, seatbelts and airbags are fall back positions of last resort (regardless of whether they are compulsory or not).

Re collisions, descriptions on this forum of incidents around the costal waters in the Isle of Wight / Southampton area lead me to believe the potential is very real.

I agree it normally takes time for a boat to flounder (unless of course you lose a keel ), but if you cannot summons help you still need a fallback position.

The original question was, should I buy a LR, and my original answer was, yes unless you have another fallback position in the event that you sink and nobody can help you.

The nay sayers have not come back with a convincing arguement other than its is something that MIGHT not happen.

For me, this is not good enough, for you it might be, I will rely on a proven floatation device should the unexpected happen, you will have to rely on your belief in statistics


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Fireball
regular


Reged: 15/11/2004
Posts: 7475
Loc: Chichester
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: DavenHelen]
      #1859881 - 15/05/2008 14:38

This weekend ... yes .... well actually 1:13983816 ... but then you knew that didn't you ....

Anyway - there is no chance of you winning it, because I am ...


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Fireball
regular


Reged: 15/11/2004
Posts: 7475
Loc: Chichester
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: nct1]
      #1859907 - 15/05/2008 14:55

Quote:

The nay sayers have not come back with a convincing arguement other than its is something that MIGHT not happen.

For me, this is not good enough, for you it might be, I will rely on a proven floatation device should the unexpected happen, you will have to rely on your belief in statistics



Again - you miss the point - we're not saying that you(or anyone else) shouldn't have one ... only that you are unlikely to need one - therefore having one is down to the individual (or family).

The likely hood of needing one is all down to chance and statistics - unless you are so risk adverse that you don't do anything for fear it might harm you ...
Life is all about taking risks - calculated risks.

A seatbelt and/or airbag do not offer you impunity .. however, due to the sheer volume and speed of traffic on todays roads they are deemed a sensible safety feature.

As I've said numerous times a LR does not guarantee your life - it may not even be there as a last resort - fate may have meant that it could not be deployed, failed to inflate or was washed away before you had a chance to use it, however it does give you the potential for another chance.

I don't know what your personal circumstances are ... but for me, our sailing area and crew are such that a LR that would set me back the cost of replacement rigging is not currently worth the expense. I wouldn't even worry greatly about being "caught out in a F7" ... in fact, I've set out in 32 knots - because the area is sheltered enough that it isn't a big sea ...

The OP asked specifically about the need for LR in coastal cruising in the UK ... well the coast is so different right round the UK that a generic answer cannot really be given - as it depends on the definition of "Coastal" ... and which bit of the coast they intend to sail ... I'd be a bit more inclined to have a LR if the distances between safe havens was quite large, but not bother if, like us a harbour is never more than ~1 or 2hr away.


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DavenHelen
regular


Reged: 06/09/2005
Posts: 555
Loc: UK, Lancashire
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Fireball]
      #1859913 - 15/05/2008 14:58



--------------------
Dave

"There are 10 types of people in the world - those who understand binary, and those who don't".


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Sailfree
regular


Reged: 18/01/2003
Posts: 2820
Loc: Solent
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Fireball]
      #1860019 - 15/05/2008 16:43

I agree with your sensible posts but think you are silly trying to convince stupid people to take appropriate safety precautions to the risks they are in reality exposed to.

Some people are too stupid to appreciate a minimal risk situation yet probably expose their families to far greater risk when they are at the wheel of a car (unless they insist that they are one of the 99.9% of drivers that are above average).

I suspect that a number are obsessed with the need to spend £1,000's on buying and servicing their liferafts yet skimp on engine maintenance or a rigging survey and probably completely miss the need to give a priority for certain items of safety kit and will only be happy when legislation is bought in to compel every watercraft to have a Liferaft.

Rather scuppers the happy individuals that got afloat for £5,000 in this months YM!!


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Tranona
regular


Reged: 10/11/2007
Posts: 1377
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Captainslarty]
      #1860034 - 15/05/2008 16:55

No, Captain, you still have to rely on others to pick you up. All you are doing is swapping one floating vessel because it has either ceased to float or is likely to do so, for one that you hope will float (but doesn't always!). A raft is not going to get you safely back to land without help.

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Tranona
regular


Reged: 10/11/2007
Posts: 1377
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Fireball]
      #1860075 - 15/05/2008 17:27

If I may be permitted one last comment then I will shut up. In an earlier post I referred to a phenomenom called "Moral Panic" where untrue things get into the public consciuosness and then take on a life of their own. (Devil worship in the Orkneys and systemic child abuse in Lancashire are examples). Look how much effort was needed to erase these untruths once they had been stated - and right to the end some supporters still refused to believe the facts.

A similar issue to this liferaft debate is the original AIDS campaigns where the general thrust was that it was "everybody's" disease. Those who are old enough will remember the scary leaflets and posters our children brought home from school. In this country and in most other developed countries it was never going to spread outside certain sections of the community because of the way it was transmitted, or through contaminated blood. To my mind, the effort spent on trying to make it everybody's disease diverted attention away from the real victims. Of course attitudes changed and our society generally has no taboos about AIDS, because we know the "truth" about it.

Suggesting that all yachtsmen need a liferaft is not dissimilar. The truth is the need is confined to narrow subsets. If I were crossing the Bay of Biscay in the winter I would take one because that is where I have a high probability (based on recorded past data) of encountering conditions that could overwhelm even a well found yacht. If I were an ocean racer intent on pushing my yacht to the limits in any conditions, I would have one (indeed would be forced to). If I habitually sailed in boats of an unstable design or had a propensity to lose its keel, I would have one. If I were a professional fisherman operating in all weathers I would have one.

The only cause of foundering which is partly outside my control is collision. And even there the 5 cases in the last 12 years have so little in common, both in the way they occured and location that the only way of avoiding them is vigilance and good seamanship from both parties.

So, fellow yachtsmen avoid the trap of moral panic and concentrate on the facts, there is more than enough to learn from them to make yachting safer.

And if you are still emotionally attached to having a raft, then by all means do so and be thankful that they are a fraction of the price in real terms than they were in the past!


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Sailfree
regular


Reged: 18/01/2003
Posts: 2820
Loc: Solent
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Tranona]
      #1860136 - 15/05/2008 18:02

Quote:

In an earlier post I referred to a phenomenom called "Moral Panic" where untrue things get into the public consciuosness and then take on a life of their own.
Quote:



Oh dear I think I will have started some Moral Panic in the thread I have started - "Liferafts - every home should have one".

It's true though more people die from flooding than the consequences of failing to have a liferaft on a boat. Can that be called "Justifiable Panic" then?



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WindFinder
regular


Reged: 03/03/2008
Posts: 291
Re: "Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK [Re: Tranona]
      #1860182 - 15/05/2008 18:44

Tranona, Sailfree & Fireball, I think it's time to give up. You've only got to read the posts to realize that some of these people are emotional rather than logical thinkers. You're typing for no good purpose.

Your arguments are well reasoned and clear. The counter arguments are hysterical. Take satisfaction from that and give up.


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