graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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I think the met office does generally seem to predict on the high side .I would disregard the CBYC wind speed readings is the system ever calibrated ? also CBYC are at the sheltered end of the bay in Westerlies.
Yesterday we were experiencing a lot more wind down near CYC as usual.Probably very much in line with the met office forecasts.
Thats the great thing about internet weather forecasts.You can allways find one that says what you want to hear. 
I think you may be right about today .It does seem hard to see were gusts of that strength are going to spring froim.I still wouldnt set off down to the West with the family aboard though.
The met office 5 day forecast has this year predicted several days where strong wind gusts have exceeded the figures given on other sites. Dont rubbish them too much.
I think you need to use a few sites simiultaneously and watch over a period of time how the actual weather has compared to the forecast.
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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I mainly use this combined with XCweather http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast...AU&metric=1
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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Your Musto hat is safe though I had cutlery and a bottle of Ketchup at the ready I think the gusts off Cardiff were about 30 knots which is 34 mph so not too far away from the met offices predicted 40 mph.
Interestingly the met office were predicting the strongest gusts at 1600 hrs which was about right from our observation.
By the time we have a few beers and start swinging the lamp it will be at least 50 knots with gusts even stronger
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
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bluedragon
regular
Reged: 07/04/2004
Posts: 954
Loc: Penarth / Milford Haven
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Actually Graham I must apologise to you for my outburst. You are a hugely experienced sailor in this area and know what forecasts work for you. I have a pet hate for the often meaningless computer generated blurb put out by some some sites (the BBC in particular...from the Met Office I guess). How does this forecast for our area this evening help anyone decide whether or not to go out??
2008-06-30 1800 - 2359
Pressure - 1017 mB F
Temp max/min - 19/13 degrees C
Wind speed - F2-5 becoming F1-5
Wind direction - SW
Max gust in knots - 25 becoming 32
Sea state - Slight
Visibility - Very good
So we could have anything from F1-5 and gusts to 32 knots!! Is it just me, or are others irritated by this kind of ambiguity? It happens all the time, and IMHO just causes confusion. It rarely represents reality...by that's just my opinion and I shouldn't ram it down the thoats of others...sorry. End of rant...  Glad the hat is safe...been searching for recipes all afternoon...
PS - CBYC did see one spike of 29 knots, but the average gusts were 23 knots (for whatever it's worth)
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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No need for apologies at all. It really does highlight the problem of which forecast to use. I generally start off with the met office one and if that is giving weather that looks marginal for sailing I look at a few other sites and try to build up a bigger picture.
I havent used wind Guru before so have signed up to it and will see how it goes . I didnt realize it gave such local forecasts. I think theres 20 or so sites just in the Bristol Channel.
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One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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bluedragon
regular
Reged: 07/04/2004
Posts: 954
Loc: Penarth / Milford Haven
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To get the best out of Windguru (the high resolution models and charts) you need to subscribe, but it costs next to nothing compared to what you get. The GFS model (which is free I think) gives as good an overview of the week ahead as you get, then the high res models (WRF 9km) for the shorter term detail. The forecast maps at high res are superb. Again, all in my opinion, having tried just about all the services out there. Together with the Met Office Inshore Waters forecast, and XC Weather for actual conditions, I don't use anything else now. But everyone should find what works for them...
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