snoopy
regular
Reged: 16/10/2006
Posts: 603
Loc: Bristol channel
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Due to uncertain weather and possible winds gusting over30knots we have reluctantly postponed the regatta to the August Bank Holiday after receiving assurances that this will be glorious sunshine with fair winds and fuel prices will be back to under a £1 per litre!  
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wotayottie
regular
Reged: 01/07/2007
Posts: 1892
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I think you may have got the wrong forecast Snoopy. Everyone I looked at says 15 knot max.
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snoopy
regular
Reged: 16/10/2006
Posts: 603
Loc: Bristol channel
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Avonmouth: forecast
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Please wait. Updated: 0929 on Thu 26 Jun 2008
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Avonmouth site information:
Latitude: 51.4989; Longitude: -2.6924
Nearest observation site: Bristol Filton (7.8 km)
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Five-day forecast: Avonmouth
Date Time Weather Temp Wind Visibility
Dir Speed Gust
Thu
26
Jun
1900 16°C WSW 16 mph 35 mph Very Good
2200 14°C SW 17 mph 39 mph Moderate
Fri
27
Jun
0100 15°C WSW 17 mph Moderate
0400 15°C W 14 mph 28 mph Good
0700 15°C W 14 mph Good
1000 16°C WSW 13 mph 30 mph Good
1300 18°C SW 17 mph 36 mph Very Good
1600 17°C SW 17 mph 29 mph Very Good
1900 16°C WSW 15 mph 26 mph Good
Night 15°C WSW 13 mph 25 mph Good
Sat
28
Jun
Day 19°C W 16 mph 30 mph Very Good
Night 14°C WSW 9 mph Good
Sun
29
Jun
Day 18°C W 14 mph 28 mph Very Good
Night 11°C WSW 7 mph 22 mph Good
Mon
30
Jun
Day 19°C W 7 mph 27 mph Very Good
Night 9°C W 3 mph Very Good
Last updated: 1801 on Thu 26 Jun 2008
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We had 5day forcast and with the fact that rain was forecast we took the view we would rather postpone and have the Regatta at a later date than have the risk of a wash out with people trying to have a good time with BBQs in the rain.We know the weather can change but our site is remote and access is not appreciated by owners if the track gets churned up. You have to make decisions with info at hand. Members were consulted and all agreed we should defer till August.Just means it will be bigger and better. 
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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Weather looks fine to me..... a few of us are still planning on invading your pill. Just make sure your beers are cool and BBQs ready
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Marine grade vinyl boat names & graphics made to order just pm me.
Reduced price for you guys seeing as it is only a hobby. http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
(mention this forum)
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snoopy
regular
Reged: 16/10/2006
Posts: 603
Loc: Bristol channel
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I don`t do wind ups!  heres your free pint.
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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Going on tonights weather.............. maybe a good call. The channel is quite big swell and its pooring down here. Maybe swmbos idea of going to a hotel in mid wales is better!
Don't forget to order your boat names while i'm gone
http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
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Marine grade vinyl boat names & graphics made to order just pm me.
Reduced price for you guys seeing as it is only a hobby. http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
(mention this forum)
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PCUK
regular
Reged: 29/06/2005
Posts: 1983
Loc: Devon
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Already booked for that weekend. Is the bank holiday a good idea?
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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I have been watching the Met office 5 day forecasts for both Cardiff and Avonmouth since tuesday they have been forecasting gusts in excess of 30 mph for the weekend.
Its currently giving Gusts of 35 mph tommorow.
I think that the type of weather with relatively low average wind speed but with much stronger gusts is the worst for sailing.You never have the right amount of sail up.
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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I have been watching too and it is ok to go but potentially not a pleasant weekend so mission aborted. Any other great plans for the weekend?
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Marine grade vinyl boat names & graphics made to order just pm me.
Reduced price for you guys seeing as it is only a hobby. http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
(mention this forum)
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chrishelen
regular
Reged: 07/01/2007
Posts: 1328
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i`m putting a new bathroom in,well thats the plan up to now.
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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Where ? .....in CDYC. is that why we can't come?
I'm happy weeing in the water.
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Marine grade vinyl boat names & graphics made to order just pm me.
Reduced price for you guys seeing as it is only a hobby. http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
(mention this forum)
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snoopy
regular
Reged: 16/10/2006
Posts: 603
Loc: Bristol channel
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Pretty miserable down there today as we cut up the wrecked punt. surprising how quickly the weather closed in ,one minute you could see the Severn crossing next minute blanked out with driving rain, cold too.
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snoopy
regular
Reged: 16/10/2006
Posts: 603
Loc: Bristol channel
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You will have too! The 1 toilet is for the ladies, and believe me when they start on the pop they go and go and go.The sani squad who emptied the Porta Potties in `96 could hardly keep up with them. [image] [/image]
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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Quote:
Any other great plans for the weekend?
Playing it by ear,if weather improves tommorow may slip away somewhere or wait until Sunday and lock out late morning for a daysail somewhere.
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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How are they selected into the ranks of sani squad ?
Is it after a strenuous selection course designed to weed out those not worthy of wearing the elite winged porta potti badge?
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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snoopy
regular
Reged: 16/10/2006
Posts: 603
Loc: Bristol channel
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Easy! they had to prove themselves worthy of the task by running up and down the stairs at home with buckets of water, if the wife said they hadnt spilled any then they could apply to join the "Sani Squad"
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mrbloto
regular
Reged: 31/12/2007
Posts: 223
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they all seem to have a smile on there face
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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Maybe a good idea that it was postponed, drizzle and quite windy here this morning.
--------------------
Marine grade vinyl boat names & graphics made to order just pm me.
Reduced price for you guys seeing as it is only a hobby. http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
(mention this forum)
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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Met office are now giving 37mph gusts for Sunday afternoon.
Thats enough to keep us in the Bay.
Were peed off.Almost every weekend I have been not working has been stuffed by the weather this year. 
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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bluedragon
regular
Reged: 07/04/2004
Posts: 954
Loc: Penarth / Milford Haven
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Sorry to say this Graham, but do you really take any notice of these garbage wind forecasts from the Met Office (and BBC)? Average wind 17 knots with gusts to F8!! I don't think so. It's one reason I use services such as WindGuru that show a much more believable F4-5 with gusts F5-6 for Cardiff Bay area for Sunday...see who's right and let us know. I'll eat my wooly Musto hat if CBYC weather station shows F8 tomorrow
PS - Here's the Inshore Waters forecast "Southwest 4 or 5, occasionally 6 around St Davids Head, veering west later"
Edited by bluedragon (28/06/2008 22:11)
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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I think the met office does generally seem to predict on the high side .I would disregard the CBYC wind speed readings is the system ever calibrated ? also CBYC are at the sheltered end of the bay in Westerlies.
Yesterday we were experiencing a lot more wind down near CYC as usual.Probably very much in line with the met office forecasts.
Thats the great thing about internet weather forecasts.You can allways find one that says what you want to hear.
I think you may be right about today .It does seem hard to see were gusts of that strength are going to spring froim.I still wouldnt set off down to the West with the family aboard though.
The met office 5 day forecast has this year predicted several days where strong wind gusts have exceeded the figures given on other sites. Dont rubbish them too much.
I think you need to use a few sites simiultaneously and watch over a period of time how the actual weather has compared to the forecast.
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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csail
regular
Reged: 24/08/2005
Posts: 4085
Loc: Rhoose/Cardiff Bay,UK
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I mainly use this combined with XCweather http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast...AU&metric=1
--------------------
Marine grade vinyl boat names & graphics made to order just pm me.
Reduced price for you guys seeing as it is only a hobby. http://www.h2o-marine.co.uk/
(mention this forum)
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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Your Musto hat is safe though I had cutlery and a bottle of Ketchup at the ready I think the gusts off Cardiff were about 30 knots which is 34 mph so not too far away from the met offices predicted 40 mph.
Interestingly the met office were predicting the strongest gusts at 1600 hrs which was about right from our observation.
By the time we have a few beers and start swinging the lamp it will be at least 50 knots with gusts even stronger
--------------------
http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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bluedragon
regular
Reged: 07/04/2004
Posts: 954
Loc: Penarth / Milford Haven
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Actually Graham I must apologise to you for my outburst. You are a hugely experienced sailor in this area and know what forecasts work for you. I have a pet hate for the often meaningless computer generated blurb put out by some some sites (the BBC in particular...from the Met Office I guess). How does this forecast for our area this evening help anyone decide whether or not to go out??
2008-06-30 1800 - 2359
Pressure - 1017 mB F
Temp max/min - 19/13 degrees C
Wind speed - F2-5 becoming F1-5
Wind direction - SW
Max gust in knots - 25 becoming 32
Sea state - Slight
Visibility - Very good
So we could have anything from F1-5 and gusts to 32 knots!! Is it just me, or are others irritated by this kind of ambiguity? It happens all the time, and IMHO just causes confusion. It rarely represents reality...by that's just my opinion and I shouldn't ram it down the thoats of others...sorry. End of rant...  Glad the hat is safe...been searching for recipes all afternoon...
PS - CBYC did see one spike of 29 knots, but the average gusts were 23 knots (for whatever it's worth)
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graham
regular
Reged: 16/05/2001
Posts: 6259
Loc: South Wales
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No need for apologies at all. It really does highlight the problem of which forecast to use. I generally start off with the met office one and if that is giving weather that looks marginal for sailing I look at a few other sites and try to build up a bigger picture.
I havent used wind Guru before so have signed up to it and will see how it goes . I didnt realize it gave such local forecasts. I think theres 20 or so sites just in the Bristol Channel.
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http://banjocoronado25.blogspot.com/
One mans junk is another mans treasure.Recycle it with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Marinaskip/
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bluedragon
regular
Reged: 07/04/2004
Posts: 954
Loc: Penarth / Milford Haven
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To get the best out of Windguru (the high resolution models and charts) you need to subscribe, but it costs next to nothing compared to what you get. The GFS model (which is free I think) gives as good an overview of the week ahead as you get, then the high res models (WRF 9km) for the shorter term detail. The forecast maps at high res are superb. Again, all in my opinion, having tried just about all the services out there. Together with the Met Office Inshore Waters forecast, and XC Weather for actual conditions, I don't use anything else now. But everyone should find what works for them...
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