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  1. #31
    TheCrimsonVicar is offline Registered User
    Location : Pokey
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    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    ...and your point is, Sqeir?
    Apologies that my days are so filled that I cannot hope to come close to your average of five posts a day every day for the last four and a half years!
    I posted because I think that the sealevel debate has huge relevence to all sailors, not least in the massive cost of proofing mooring and marina infrastucture against a rise which is probably a false alarm

  2. #32
    Join Date
    May 2007
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    3,869

    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    Several points.

    1) Sea-level rise is an observed fact, real enough for it to be taken into account in major engineering works such as the Thames Barrier. It is not a modelling output. It is also directly affecting several island nations; some of whose existence is threatened.

    2) If you really want to look into it, all the calibrated tide-gauge data are freely available at http://www.bodc.ac.uk. There is nothing hidden; the data are all available, from instruments properly calibrated to international standards. You are at liberty to do your own analysis.

    3) One input into predictions of the future rate of sea-level rise is melt from the great ice sheets. Bamber's work simply recalculates the maximum input from one such ice sheet; one which there is observed reason to believe may cause us more problems than previously thought.

    4) Bamber's calculations are similar to those used by civil engineers to estimate cut and fill problems. It is NOT modelling or other forms of rocket science.

    5) On a lesser plane, we have OBSERVED that 75% of the glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula are retreating - and that this is a recent trend; before about 1960-70, the majority were advancing. Funnily, this correlates directly with OBSERVED rises in average annual temperature. The results were published in Science about two years ago.

    6) The time constants involved in the observed loss of ice indicates that an event like this cannot have happened for a period in the region of 1000s of years. A woolly figure, I know, but certainly the right order of magnitude.

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
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    2,025

    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    Ahh but the Thames Barrier is NOT an example of sea level rise due to global warming, its a response to the probability of flooding London exacerbated by the sea defences erected around the east coast which would have the effect of raising sea levels because of the combined effects of a strong NE wind, high spring tide and low atmospheric pressure as in 1953. Water that would have dispersed around the east coast cant so it all goes to london sort of idea, sorry but leaving the odd light on did nt cause that.

    Also sea level is a very complex subject and not fully understood, if lots of extra water is added to the water system by a melting ice cap or two not all of it will end up in the sea. The possibility of more being held in the atmosphere and hence more rain is very likely. It could rain in places where it hardly rains at all now, so dessert gets turned into green forest, lowlands into lakes and seas where there were none before.

    The new forests and lakes provide huge CO2 sinks mopping up carbon at a great rate and the earth self regulates to a new equilibrium.

    So what happens to the weather/climate if that happens? no one knows . . .

    Human intervention in all of this is and will always be insignificant.

    Have a nice day

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
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    20,528

    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    The Crimson Vicar is not only not a boater of any kind, he is very much anti yachters, witness his petulant posts on another (non-boating) forum where the subject was planning permission for another 70 berths at Dunstaffnage marina:

    [ QUOTE ]
    http://forums.obantimes.co.uk/showthread.php?t=214 the majority of Obanites are quite pleased that permission for yet another 70 berths has been refused. Most don't want Oban turned into some yachtie holiday home. We can gain enough employment from traditional tourism and not have to be overwhelmed by the captain pugwash brigade and their middle class ways.

    Bless
    The Vic


    [/ QUOTE ]

    and (same thread)

    [ QUOTE ]
    http://forums.obantimes.co.uk/showthread.php?t=214 70 berths in Dunstaffnage actually going to benefit OBAN ?
    The Marina will benefit, the chandlery, The Frog...but Oban, no. I doubt if any yachties who stop at Dunstafnage actually bother to come into Oban and spend at our restaurants, bars, shops etc except to restock their G&T's at Tescos.
    I grant that there actually may be a case for creating a yachtie ghetto midway between Oban and Connel to save those two communities from hordes of pugwashes blocking our streets in their yellow designer booties.
    Another 70 berths in Dunstaffnage Bay? Stop eating the shellfish then...how many tons of human excrement is going to be pumped out of these boats directly into our waters?

    Bless
    The Vic


    [/ QUOTE ]
    A strong contender for Troll of the Year at this early stage?

    ( I bet you can guess who else he is, Sgeir [img]/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

    - W

  5. #35
    Join Date
    May 2007
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    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    The engineering of the Thames Barrier was originally planned for a life-time of 100 years, assuming that the rates of sea-level rise as measured at the start of the project remained constant. This life-time has been revised downwards; the Thames Barrier will require major upgrading within 50 years.

    Of course the existence of the Thames Barrier has nothing to do with sea-level rise; it is a pragmatic response to tidal surges in the North Sea. However, the expected longevity of the barrier is definitely a function of sea-level rise.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    May 2001
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    7,440

    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    The pilot boats tied up to the pier in Barry Harbour dont seem to sit any higher than they ever did on the top of a Spring tide.If there has been any rise then it is very slight.No scientific study required .Just observations through the wheelhouse windows.

  7. #37
    Sgeir's Avatar
    Sgeir is offline Registered User
    Location : Loch Linnhe in the summer - Dallens Bay, Appin. Ashore at MRC, Loch Creran for this winter.
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
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    Default Re: Sea rise puzzle.

    [ QUOTE ]
    I bet you can guess who else he is, Sgeir [img]/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

    [/ QUOTE ]
    Absolutely no idea, but it did have that certain je ne sais quoi about it.

    All in all, an excellent first post; clearly familiar with his subject (you), knew which buttons to press etc. PDG, brilliant in fact. Masterful, even.
    Ω

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