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  1. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
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    844

    Default Re: ResponSe from HM Treasury

    <<don't think there will be a MASS exodus of powerboaters.......but large motorboats are still sold in countries where there is no red diesel>>

    OK it's not my area of skill to estimate how much of a "mass" but the second point is comparing apples + pears. Other countires don't have the their diesel priced anywhere near our UK road price to end user. If the end of the red concession means we would have to pay UK road price, it will be well worth us moving our boat abroad eg N France circa 50p/lit rather than 75+ here and (now anyway) lower mooring charges. Gordon aint gonna show a profit on us and surely we aren't the only ones.

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  2. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
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    3,638

    Default Re: ResponSe from HM Treasury

    I didn't mean it as a direct comparison on diesel price, I meant that the Boat makers will still have their markets.

    None of us know what the overall effect of such an increase would be, we are all speculating. I speculate as follows:

    1) The derogation (?) will disappear - government will use "green" argument and blame the EU for forcing it on us.
    2) Many leisure boaters will modify their boat usage and reduce fuel consumption.
    3) Smaller diesel engined boats will take a big hit on residual values (but not the Treasurys problem so thats OK then isn't it)
    4) There will not be a MASS exodus or 75% reduction in fuel usage overall therefore tax yields will rise.
    5) The one who feels the pain will be the family boater who currently spends his hard earned income doing something he enjoys - but what the hell he must be middle class and therefore fair game to this government.
    6) Marinas will have more raggies but still be full (some of these raggies will be converts from motorcruisers choosing this route to upsize).

    As I say it is pure speculation, but I bet the Treasury has a much more sophisticated model on which they can do their "what-ifs" and calculate the optimum tax hike to maximise yields, and that will determine the price of diesel in future. By the way this will probably be somewhere lower than the full price of road diesel

    I'll shut up now because I'm only speculating but I haven't seen anything to make me change my opinion of this issue since it was first raised on here. I hope I am wrong

    Martyn




    <hr width=100% size=1>Living the dream

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Brecon, Wales
    Posts
    7,165

    Default Re: ResponSe from HM Treasury

    Sorry - must disagree on some points:-

    "1) The derogation (?) will disappear - government will use "green" argument and blame the EU for forcing it on us."
    I agree that may well be the case.

    "2) Many leisure boaters will modify their boat usage and reduce fuel consumption"

    No - many, if not most already struggle and swallow hard when filling tamks- a 400% plus increase will make it untenable for them. Imagine a motor car - its a largish one and does 20mpg - now it suddenly is doing only 4 or 5 mpg - people would not use it, even well off people because the marginal cost is so high. In fact I know a multi millionnair who got rid of his car because consumption fell to about 12 mpg when driven hard.
    A simple trip from Swansea is Ilfracoombe - I asked many 30 to 40 foot boaters would they go if they were using petrol - all said it would not be worth it - all though that such a price rise was not possible and all would have to stop boating if the concession ends.

    "3) Smaller diesel engined boats will take a big hit on residual values (but not the Treasurys problem so thats OK then isn't it)"

    The market values would drop like a stone because no one could afford to use them - my whole point. Bigger boats may be worth moving abroad- French ports would do very good business and boating money would move overseas rapidly.

    "4) There will not be a MASS exodus or 75% reduction in fuel usage overall therefore tax yields will rise."

    There will be mass drop out of the UN boat market. I am not poor, I have a Squadron 59 but I could not justify spending £1500 on a return trip to Padstow (6 hours round trip) - I would move it to the Med. It takes a lot of fuel revenue at higher rates to compensate for the many massive tax drops elsewhere. All my expenses would move overseas - it would take a huge amount o fule sales to compensate for my boat alone.

    "5) The one who feels the pain will be the family boater who currently spends his hard earned income doing something he enjoys - but what the hell he must be middle class and therefore fair game to this government. "

    They would leave boating and suffer greatly - this government was elected with the support of the middle classes. \\you may be right.

    "6) Marinas will have more raggies but still be full (some of these raggies will be converts from motorcruisers choosing this route to upsize)."
    Marinas will lose many power boats - the marine industry would lose out big time. I am not sure if the move to being a raggie will happen.

    "7. As I say it is pure speculation, but I bet the Treasury has a much more sophisticated model on which they can do their "what-ifs" and calculate the optimum tax hike to maximise yields, and that will determine the price of diesel in future. By the way this will probably be somewhere lower than the full price of road diesel "

    Strongly disagree - having done mathematical modelling on a large scale and having once discussed it with the person who became head of the Treasury - there is no way on earth they have any sophisticated model - any such model has to predict how boaters will behave - they cannot even get the basic facts right. Above all I am as certain as I can be that they do not know what they are doing. They are largely incompetent. :-)

    What would happen if the price of road fuel went up 400% to 500% - road use would be dramatically altered. Boating is no different.


    <hr width=100% size=1>Paul
    Paul
    St Francis 50 Cat
    My Multihull Forum

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Posts
    3,638

    Default Re: ResponSe from HM Treasury

    Oh Bugger Paul, I wanted to let this rest but I enjoying this banter too much. (Do you realise that if we were sat in a pub having this discussion over a few pints then everyone else would probably have left but we would still be enjoying it :-)

    I obviously can't really disagree with what you say because at this stage we are both just speculating.

    I think we both agree that however they dress it up, the treasurys main interest is tax yield. On this basis I think the end result will be some form of "fudge" which will result in prices rising but not enough to result in the mass exodus (perhaps to 50-65p per litre). I do think that some researcher somewhere will be doing some form of modelling to calculate the best yield. I do not think that you will be paying 400% more.

    This government will not miss an opportunity to get more from us.

    Now, I've finished my drink, do you want another or is it time to go home?

    Martyn



    <hr width=100% size=1>Living the dream

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Brecon, Wales
    Posts
    7,165

    Default Re: ResponSe from HM Treasury

    "then everyone else would probably have left but we would still be enjoying it :-)"
    I have to agree :-)

    "I obviously can't really disagree with what you say because at this stage we are both just speculating."

    You can disagree even though, as you say, we are speculating - still ok to have differing opinions.

    "I think we both agree that however they dress it up, the treasurys main interest is tax yield. "

    We can agree on that.

    "On this basis I think the end result will be some form of "fudge" which will result in prices rising but not enough to result in the mass exodus (perhaps to 50-65p per litre). I do think that some researcher somewhere will be doing some form of modelling to calculate the best yield. I do not think that you will be paying 400% more."

    You have now joined the ranks of those who think it cannot happen - the discusssuion was about what would happen if it went the full hog. So you are changing the bais of the discussion but this would be Ok as long as it was your round :-)

    I think it can happen with the full rate being applied - the harder we fight that, the less chance of it happening. The reason I think it can happen is because they are idiots and goverments have a record of doing really stupid things.

    We need to clearly establish what the different party lines are on this issue - I have asked my local MP for his Lib-Dem party line as well as his own views - no answer yet because I bet they have never even discussed it.

    If I had the figures I would put up an on-line tax yield model that can be improved on as we go and played with by everyone to tune it in. I am convinced that there would be a huge drop in consumption - of the order of 80% and so they may well make the same tax yield out of the fuel but the tax yield drop in many other areas would mean an overall net drop in tax yield. My own boats and costs alone would result in a tax yield drop of about £15000 per annum. Just to compensate for one boat would take a lot of fueld sales.

    The amount of fuel power boaters use is on a very small scale compared to other forms of transport and road use.



    <hr width=100% size=1>Paul
    Paul
    St Francis 50 Cat
    My Multihull Forum

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