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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    745

    Default Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    I write this on the E Coast as the sky has turned grey, not too distant thunder is rumbling and the wind is gusting around in circles with ever brighter lightning in the S and SW
    Just two hours ago on a sweltering blue-sky afternoon I was discussing tonight's weather with friends in the pub and the BBC in particular was showing no sign of thunder and 4-6% of rain through the night. Despite that everyone thought it would thunder tonight.

    Two nights ago the situation was the same, late afternoon and throughout the evening low single figure % of thunder predicted - even at midnight when I checked even as the horizon was flashing visibly and we got into the biggest and best display I think I've ever been privileged to witness. 4-6%.

    How is it so hard to predict something as significant as this? Surely the levels of instability in the atmosphere required to produce the awesome displays earlier in the week are easy enough to see and predict?
    How do they get it so wrong so often and so consistently?

    Edit, twenty minutes later; now I'm sitting outside watching the display with https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=...l=6;dc=0;ts=0; on my laptop, watching the lightning and seeing the laptop record each bolt and display the sonic thunder-front as it propagates outwards and count the 2.5 second system delay to identify the sound as it arrives and connact it with the bolt observed for real and on the laptop.
    This is awesome stuff!


    Edit. An hour and a half later the best part of E Anglia is under a mass of thunderstorms and the best the BBC haas managed is a change- from clear skies to heavy showers, no mention of the belt-fed thunder and continuous heavy rain we've had for the last couple of hours.
    Last edited by Old Bumbulum; 25-07-19 at 21:15.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    UK East Coast
    Posts
    36,563

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    BBC Weather has had Weather Warnings on its website for many days now. I find it quite accurate in its predictions. I was on the boat on the east coast on Tuesday night and the predicted thunderstorm certainly hit.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    745

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    That's right. Yellow weather warnings of rain with a full sun pictogram with a max 3-6% of rain throughout the day. It doesn't add up does it?
    Then another day they pictogram is cloud, half sun and a raindrop again with 3-6% chance of rain but no a single raindrop shown in the hour by hour analysis. In both cases the description is warm and sunny...

    How???

    Are they employing dear old Al Sleet to do the forecast perhaps?
    Last edited by Old Bumbulum; 25-07-19 at 20:50.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    UK East Coast
    Posts
    36,563

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    I wonder whether you're bothering to click on the big black bar on the BBC Weather website which says "Weather warnings issued"? If you do, it tells you the risk of adverse weather. If you just look at the little raindrop symbols you won't learn much.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Essex
    Posts
    22,861

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    My thermometer went to 35 degrees this afternoon. Do I really need a weather forecast to tell me to expect a thunderstorm?

    The hail was so severe that it set off the alarm in my car twice.
    Far away is near at hand in images of elsewhere

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    248

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    Meteorologist is somebody who can explain scientifically why yesterday's forecast didn't come true.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    London / Suffolk
    Posts
    833

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    Unfortunately although we heard thunder the storms missed London and so it's still over 30 degrees here and exceptionally humd after the little splattering of rain we did get.
    Someone more informed will come along any minute

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Perth WA
    Posts
    2,175

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    I think thunderstorms are notoriously hard to predict. When I watch the weather radar in our neck of the woods they appear out of the blue and then disappear.

    Maybe this weather site could help? (If you are not already using it)
    http://www.myweather2.com/

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    On the Celtic Fringe
    Posts
    14,333

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    The Met Office no longer supplies the BBC with weather!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    36

    Default Re: Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    I recently came across: http://en.blitzortung.org/live_light...aps.php?map=10

    Realtime display of lightning strikes. It was extraordinary to watch it after returning from t'pub on Thursday night.

    It is a stunning example of what's best on the web: a set of amateur lightning detectors, some very clever software on a server, and there it all is on the screen with a delay of about 8 seconds.

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