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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    745

    Default Met Forecasts, Thunder and Lightnng.

    I write this on the E Coast as the sky has turned grey, not too distant thunder is rumbling and the wind is gusting around in circles with ever brighter lightning in the S and SW
    Just two hours ago on a sweltering blue-sky afternoon I was discussing tonight's weather with friends in the pub and the BBC in particular was showing no sign of thunder and 4-6% of rain through the night. Despite that everyone thought it would thunder tonight.

    Two nights ago the situation was the same, late afternoon and throughout the evening low single figure % of thunder predicted - even at midnight when I checked even as the horizon was flashing visibly and we got into the biggest and best display I think I've ever been privileged to witness. 4-6%.

    How is it so hard to predict something as significant as this? Surely the levels of instability in the atmosphere required to produce the awesome displays earlier in the week are easy enough to see and predict?
    How do they get it so wrong so often and so consistently?

    Edit, twenty minutes later; now I'm sitting outside watching the display with https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=...l=6;dc=0;ts=0; on my laptop, watching the lightning and seeing the laptop record each bolt and display the sonic thunder-front as it propagates outwards and count the 2.5 second system delay to identify the sound as it arrives and connact it with the bolt observed for real and on the laptop.
    This is awesome stuff!


    Edit. An hour and a half later the best part of E Anglia is under a mass of thunderstorms and the best the BBC haas managed is a change- from clear skies to heavy showers, no mention of the belt-fed thunder and continuous heavy rain we've had for the last couple of hours.
    Last edited by Old Bumbulum; 25-07-19 at 21:15.

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