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  1. #11
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
    Location
    Lorient, just back from a second round Atlantic trip
    Posts
    3,563

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Here it comes (latest NHC track forecast)

    nhclor.jpg
    oh no, yet another sailing blog
    http://sybrancaleone.blogspot.com/

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    West Sussex / Hants
    Posts
    28,771

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Sadly a French tug - a big, modern one - has sunk in the Hurricane, 3 rescued 11 missing.

    https://gcaptain.com/bourbon-rhode-s...eid=421aeb281d
    Anderson 22 Owners Association - For info please ask here or PM me.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    53

    Default Hurricane Lorenzo

    A freak hurricane making landfall tomorrow on the Azores islands, probably hitting Ireland by the end of the week! I believe it's the strongest most Easterly hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic by a long margin. Pretty scary! Seems like it's going to be affecting a lot of sailors! :/

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    8,562

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Gosport NCI - Call us on Ch 65 for a radio check if passing.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    53

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Does one have any chance of survival with hurricanes at sea in smallish yachts i.e. 30 footers?

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Atlantic
    Posts
    21,262

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Interestingly its drawing a big influx of air across the Canaries from Africa and giving shore temperatures of up to 35c.

    Was sailing out of Puerto Calero on the east coast of Lanzarote this morning and it felt a bit like a hairdryer.

    Best of luck to all those on the beautiful Azorean Island of Flores, they look like taking a pasting.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    8,562

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents

    Times are AST (UTC -4). Could be a tad breezy around 7pm on Friday!
    Gosport NCI - Call us on Ch 65 for a radio check if passing.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
    Location
    Lorient, just back from a second round Atlantic trip
    Posts
    3,563

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Quote Originally Posted by Seajet View Post
    Sadly a French tug - a big, modern one - has sunk in the Hurricane, 3 rescued 11 missing.

    https://gcaptain.com/bourbon-rhode-s...eid=421aeb281d
    Unfortunately, among the missing ones one body was recovered two days ago, two other bodies today.
    oh no, yet another sailing blog
    http://sybrancaleone.blogspot.com/

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,616

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Hurricane Roberto - impacting the western Azores about now, with huge seas.

    NOAA are now 'suggesting' this disturbance will likely hook right and plaster the west of Ireland..... then our own north-west. The hurricane winds may have dissipated by then... maybe... but the hurricane's rainfall won't.

    And there are hints that the path could be.... might be.... a bit further south. As always, a published forecast is but one of a number of statistical possibilities the big computers churn out.

    See here: Advisory 38: 5:00pm AST Tue Oct 01

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    UK when not sailing
    Posts
    3,871

    Default Re: Hurricane Lorenzo

    Quote Originally Posted by zoidberg View Post
    Hurricane Roberto - impacting the western Azores about now, with huge seas.

    NOAA are now 'suggesting' this disturbance will likely hook right and plaster the west of Ireland..... then our own north-west. The hurricane winds may have dissipated by then... maybe... but the hurricane's rainfall won't.

    And there are hints that the path could be.... might be.... a bit further south. As always, a published forecast is but one of a number of statistical possibilities the big computers churn out.

    See here: Advisory 38: 5:00pm AST Tue Oct 01
    There is always some uncertainty in any computer model forecast usually in the detail, occasionally, on the large scale. That is so for several reasons. Forecasters who have to present forecasts to the public and warnings to authorities have to make decisions on how to interpret the various model outputs available including ensemble forecasts. A few days ago they were saying that there seemed to be two posable tracks for Lorenzo: one towards SW U.K. and one towards the NW. Later forecasts have come down to the latter. In my time as a senior forecaster at Bracknell, it was my personal policy to say what I knew - or thought that I knew - and always encouraged other forecasters using my guidance to do likewise. In other words, if you are not reasonably sure then you should say so.

    There have been massive improvement in forecasting over the 60+ years of my direct experience. The ability to predict change of type of weather situation, the ability to predict those horrendously difficult occasions when rain turns to snow, amounts of heavy rain or snow , outlooks for a week ahead etc. But, inevitably, sometimes it will still go wrong. It is a measure of the improvement in weather forecasting that it comes as a surprise when it is badly wrong. One example was my fairly recent experience of being out in a F8/9 when the forecasts wee saying F5/6 with a hint from one centre out of three of F7. Such occasions are rare but, inevitably, will occur from time to time.

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