I really have a problem with deciding what to believe here. There is very little data showing any attacks on yachts, the ones that are reported on all these cruiser's sites are doubtful at best. Then, what does that really mean? Is there a lot of 'lost yachts' out there that we do not hear about? Tricky question for someone who is trying to cast off this way.
My very personal conclusion is this:
1. Firstly, I do not believe that there are 'fewer yachts' doing this route now. My feeling is the opposite, there are many hundreds and the amount has increased, not decreased.
2. After having spoken to as many circumnavigators as I have been able to find here in Turkey, the picture is indeed one of 'fishermen' trying to trade rather than pirates that these yachts have met.
3. This feeling is reinforced by Rod Heikell in his latest book 'Ocean Passages and Landfalls' (Imray 2005). I think his guru status is somewhat unearned, but he is indeed someone with a lot of experience in this area. He also speaks of encounters with 'impoverished fishing men looking very much piratical, but being nothing of the sort'. He agrees with the picture of fishing men trying to trade fish for cigarettes or other 'western' goods. He claims to have never had any 'piracy' experience.
I think we will push off down the Red Sea and into the Gulf of Aden, just being very careful. BTW, that is the way we sail anyway so no big deal. I believe Heikell when he says that there are larger risks of gear failure in the notorious gusts in the Red Sea, than anything nearing ''pirate activity'.
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